Jump to content

2018 4A State Analysis


Recommended Posts

I wanted to make a thread showing potential contenders for the 4A state contest, and I will try to make a 6A version as well.

 

Most of my knowledge of 4A is within Areas B and C, as they are 4As toughest areas, so there are A LOT more notes about those bands written there, so if people could help me with A, D, and E, that would be awesome!

 

4A Area A:

Pecos (Last years Area Champion and state advancer)

Greenwood (State advancer, 2nd in area)

Wylie Abilene (Moving to 5A as of now, but past state advancer)

Big Spring (Missed state last time by a tie breaker)

 

Predicted state spots: 3

 

In all honesty, this is by far the easiest 4A area, and sometimes it's anyone's game for who does well here.

 

4A Area B, the big boy:

Princeton (Moving to 5A and is well above the cutoff, but I'll leave them here regardless, Bronze medalist)

Argyle (Ol Argyle, silver medalist and usual state champion of whatever division they're currently in)

Canton (State advancer, basically always makes it and a super fine band program)

Wills Point (4th in state in 2016)

Melissa (Missed state by 1 point, and EXTREMELY deserving band also, definitely would've done well had they made state, and with Princeton out of the picture, they have a good shot)

Anna (Also a really fine band, but in by far the toughest area, regardless it's worth not counting them out)

Farmersville (3A silver medalist and moving to 4A, they probably won't make state due to being in Area B, but nothing is impossible)

 

Area finalists will likely be Argyle, Canton, Wills Point, Melissa, Anna, Aubrey, Farmersville, with 3 spots open to fight for. Kaufman is going to 5A so they won't be there for one.

Graham and Krum will be good contenders to edge in again.

 

Predicted state spots: 4-5, division changes might help factor in how many get 1s.

 

Aubrey is also a fairly good band, but this area is extremely tough.

 

4A Area C:

North Lamar (defending state champion and was even more amazing in 2017, they're a state contender for sure)

Spring Hill (5th in state and an amazing military band, another for sure)

Little Cypress Mauriceville (missed state finals by 1 place, and also a really fine band)

Paris (made state last time)

Atlanta (Moving to 3A, and is well below the cutoff. They have made state every year since 2006 though, but most likely won't be in 4A though)

Lumberton (5A state band going to 4A, will most likely but fighting for a state finals spot)

Bridge City (Missed state by 1 spot last year, and I saw them that year and honestly thought they would've gotten it in 2016)

Pleasant Grove (Usually a really good band, and has improved a lot since a couple of rough years)

 

Finalists will be North Lamar, Spring Hill, LCM, Paris, Bridge City, Carthage, and Pleasant Grove for sure, the last 3 spots could be anyone's game, Pittsburg could take one, they did beat Carthage at NAMMB by placing 3rd, which is rather impressive, there's also Bullard again.

 

Predicted state spots: 4-5, with a lot of this areas bands moving divisions and a lot more have fell off from 1s, it's mostly likely going to be 4, and hopefully no less than 4.

 

Carthage and Bullard are also really good military bands that made area finals here, but I think it would be hard for a military band to squeeze into a bottom state spot in area finals.

 

4A Area D:

Springtown

Kennendale

Freedricksburg

China Spring (6th in state)

Casteberry

Burnet (State alternate)

 

Predicted state spots: 5

 

4A Area E:

Port Isabel

La Feria

Rio Grande City Grulla

Hidalgo (state finalist and really awesome band)

Rio Hondo

Crystal City

 

Predicted state spots: 5-6

 

So far my predictions are

Area A: Canyon, Pecos, Greenwood

Area B: Argyle, Wills Point, Canton, Melissa, 5th spot would be between Farmersville and Anna.

Area C: North Lamar, Spring Hill, Lumberton, and LCM. a 5th spot would likely be Bridge City

Area D: Springtown, Kennendale, Fredricksburg, China Spring, not sure about the 5th

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Area D I wouldn’t throw out Esperit de corps (Burnet). They missed state last year by a spot and usually made state. And Area C will most likely have 5 Spots.

I'll add Burnet in, it's always wise to consider the state alternates. In the case of Area C, I actually counted how many bands in that area got 1s this year, it was 22, and with Atlanta and Cleveland (both 1st division bands) no longer being in conference 4A for 2018 as of now, that's 2 less. I would assume more than 20 bands will pulls 1s in 2018 for sure though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll add Burnet in, it's always wise to consider the state alternates. In the case of Area C, I actually counted how many bands in that area got 1s this year, it was 22, and with Atlanta and Cleveland (both 1st division bands) no longer being in conference 4A for 2018 as of now, that's 2 less. I would assume more than 20 bands will pulls 1s in 2018 for sure though. 

Oh, I didn't know Cleveland went to 3A. And You're right, It will most likely be 4. Possibly even 3 if not enough bands participate/get first division.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Oh, I didn't know Cleveland went to 3A. And You're right, It will most likely be 4. Possibly even 3 if not enough bands participate/get first division.

Actually they went to 5A, well over the limit too at 1400ish people. Participation is also no longer an issue because UIL changed it to be based off how many bands QUALIFY for area, not participate. 3A Area C actually had exactly 20 bands qualify, but only 18 participated at area, but they had 4 state spots anyway. But you're right, 4A area is at risk for 3 spots, which would be the lowest in years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m curious to how Cleveland will adjust to Area E/Area F in the coming years (if they decide to attend the contest). If Area C went down to 3 Bands, it would be a bloodbath for the top 3. To be honest it would be a bloodbath for one spot. The lock bands are Spring Hill and North Lamar. But then again, ANYTHING is possible, White Oak didn’t make state in 3A and In 2A Carlisle and Shelbyville didn’t advance either

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m curious to how Cleveland will adjust to Area E/Area F in the coming years (if they decide to attend the contest). If Area C went down to 3 Bands, it would be a bloodbath for the top 3. To be honest it would be a bloodbath for one spot. The lock bands are Spring Hill and North Lamar. But then again, ANYTHING is possible, White Oak didn’t make state in 3A and In 2A Carlisle and Shelbyville didn’t advance either

North Lamar is a 100% lock, I don't see how that band could not make it even with a horrible run at this point. Spring Hill on the other hand, they're a lock too but I can promise you all the other bands that made it below them or close will fighting hard for their spot. LCM is solid for a lock spot but I can see them being edged out by Bridge City or someone else. There could also be a wildcard, but Area C seems consistent for the most part. The top 7 bands at area finals in 2014 and 2016 were the exact same, just a slightly different order.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

I find Lumberton making state finals as a tossup or not as likely. They did advance to state in 5A, but they got 30th out of 36th (Not saying this to insult, they are a great band program.) I’m not sure about them beating LCM either, they where only off 4A Finals by a point, but ANYTHING is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a member of the Lumberton band, i have to say that if we do make it to state, i will be happy just to be there and if we dont make state finals then well thats fine. Im not saying that we SHOULD make finals. I would love to but if not then thats fine. But i will say that from what my friends have told me(some of them are in bands that we are now going to be competing against) that apparently we are somewhat a threat to some bands already. Idk if thats true or not but i will say next year is going to be intense for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a member of the Lumberton band, i have to say that if we do make it to state, i will be happy just to be there and if we dont make state finals then well thats fine. Im not saying that we SHOULD make finals. I would love to but if not then thats fine. But i will say that from what my friends have told me(some of them are in bands that we are now going to be competing against) that apparently we are somewhat a threat to some bands already. Idk if thats true or not but i will say next year is going to be intense for sure.

Good luck and play hard!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...