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Most of the Region 18 results have been updated on uilforms.com, but so far those results only consist of the 6A bands and the first block of the 5A bands.

Ann Richards and Reagan were the only bands from the first block of 5A bands to get 1s.

Speaking of Ann Richards, they are listed as being Non-Varsity on the website. Does that mean that they cannot advance to area?

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Ann Richards can't advance. Although there's precedent in this Area for new schools choosing to compete their first cycle as varsity. One in particular almost advanced to state their first year as a school. A hint - they've won state in 4A.

 

For how I think Saturday will go, I think it'll end up something like:

 

Leander / Cedar Park

small gap

Vandegrift

slightly bigger but still small gap

Vista Ridge / Dripping Springs

 

And Connally as the first alternate

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If there were a finals in this contest, I would say the top 5 are pretty tight and all but locked up. However, seeing as we will likely only get prelims, I think how the draw works out can definitely have some influence in throwing us some curve balls. We've seen in the past in this contest how much things can change from prelims to finals. When do we know the schedule for this? Then I'll give my level of confidence in our top 5 :P

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Fun facts regarding that very point - Cedar Park was 7th in prelims in 2011 Area D. A washout would have prevented the eventual state champion from even advancing. Also in 2013, as the rest of the state was getting washed out, Area D had nice weather and held both prelims and finals. If it had been rained out as well, Dripping Springs would have advanced.

 

http://www.uilmusicregion18.com/pdfs/2015_AreaD_5A_Schedule_Preliminary.pdf is the preliminary schedule. The Region 18 bands still need to be slotted in.

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Connally and McCallum both sounded very nice last night. I think they will both be interesting add-ins to the area D "Prelims only" debacle that might occur. 

 

Performance order will be posted today, probably afternoon.

 

My prediction is Leander plus any four (any four of DS, Vandy, VR, CP, Connally, and McCallum) that nail it right the first time somewhat independent of performance order and weather since with rain also can be extreme post-shower humidity and heat. I think Leander's music is enough and they are ahead enough to secure them a spot, even with a slightly sloppy performance and even without the flashier marching I'd like to see. I just really like the music, so I might be biased. And no I don't have a kid in Leander! 

 

Prelims only will make this interesting contest even more, well, interesting.

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Fun facts regarding that very point - Cedar Park was 7th in prelims in 2011 Area D. A washout would have prevented the eventual state champion from even advancing. 

 

This is my fear. That a deserving band will be left out because of classic weird prelim judging. 

 

Based on the schedule it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Conally snuck in again. Just a hunch based on my knowledge of how judges are influenced by flow of bands (I'm a firm believer in this)

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This is my fear. That a deserving band will be left out because of classic weird prelim judging.

 

Based on the schedule it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Conally snuck in again. Just a hunch based on my knowledge of how judges are influenced by flow of bands (I'm a firm believer in this)

I agree as well. Looking at the prelims schedule I'd say Leander and Cedar Park are probably locks for state qualification, and with Vista Ridge and Dripping Springs going earlier in the contest I could definitely see Conally slipping in. I think Vandegrift is pretty solid and out of any of the LISD groups I would say Vista Ridge is the only one not safe in prelims.

Locks-

Leander

Cedar Park

 

Likely Contenders-

Dripping Springs

Vandegrift

 

Bubble-

Vista Ridge

Conally

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To be clear, I think there's a a pretty defined top 5 and if I were a betting man (side note - could you imagine and illegal underground marching band gambling ring?) I would easily put money on the 5 that have been mentioned. 9 out of 10 times I think these bands would advance in this contest. But that 10th time becomes more likely with a rainy prelims only day.

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I think the top 4 is sealed (Leander, CP, Vista, Vandy).  The 5th will likely be DS, but Connally could contend.

McCalllum probably won't be in the top 5 if they lost to Georgetown at VR (Georgetown hasn't been in Area D finals in either 5A or 6A in what...7-8 years? Though I think both them and Eastview have a shot this year.).  I think next on the list would be LBJ, and after scoring pretty far behind DS at Westlake, I think they're out of the mix as well.

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It does seem that the LISD schools and Dripping Springs are pretty far ahead of the rest of the pack. The next school on my prediction list would be Connally, but they got beat by Hays at the Vista Ridge contest, and Dripping Springs beat Hays by almost 10 points in Westlake finals; and I'll go ahead and assume that Vista and Drip are still on around the same level. So it seems to me, barring some crazy judging or very bad performances (which are very possible considering the weather), I'd say the top five are pretty locked in.

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If UIL holds true to it being "marching and music" (as it should) and not leaning too much in the route of BOA (General Effect, Visuals), then the locks are:

 

Vista Ridge

Leander

Cedar Park

Vandegrift

 

That 5th place is a tough one.  I've seen Dripping Springs and Georgetown multiple times.  I've seen Connally.    I think Dripping Springs is slightly in the lead, although Georgetown's "Dia de los Muertos" show is pretty darn good.  It's going to come down to whoever can utterly nail the marching and music.

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Can I just say that the fact that we are even discussing slotting being an issue with bands that deserve to advance actually getting to advance is pretty evident proof that something about this outdated judging system needs to change? CP 7th in pre lims in 2011 is ludicrous, and while im not trying to take anything away from them (absolutely loved their show last year) Hendrickson winning 6a area d pre lims.....no 

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