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2015 BOA San Antonio Predictions


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I know it's still "early" in the season, but after McAllen and Austin regionals, it may be a good time to start talking about our predictions for the BOA San Antonio Super Regional coming up in a month from now! 

 

Thoughts?

 

I feel like even though Bowie got a surprising placement at Austin, I think they will eventually pull up in the coming weeks. I also know bands like Westlake tend to do better later in the season, so I'm gunning for them to be in finals as well. I think Vista Ridge could make finals again this year!

 

I'm not going to try placements because that's insane but I will say SOME of the bands that I believe are top contenders for this competition (probably going to forget a few because there are SO MANY!) 

 

Marcus

Bowie

Hebron

Leander

Cedar Park

CTJ

Woodlands

Round Rock

Reagan

Vandegrift

Flower Mound

Vista Ridge 

Westlake

Hendrickson 

Dripping Springs

 

 

 

I apologize in advanced if I forgot a band, and anything could happen really! Competition seems to be getting harder and harder every year!

Edited by guardgirl17
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I know it's still "early" in the season, but after McAllen and Austin regionals, it may be a good time to start talking about our predictions for the BOA San Antonio Super Regional coming up in a month from now! 

 

Thoughts?

 

I feel like even though Bowie got a surprising placement at Austin, I think they will eventually pull up in the coming weeks. I also know bands like Westlake tend to do better later in the season, so I'm gunning for them to be in finals as well. I think Vista Ridge could make finals again this year!

 

I'm not going to try placements because that's insane but I will say SOME of the bands that I believe are top contenders for this competition (probably going to forget a few because there are SO MANY!) 

 

Marcus

Bowie

Hebron

Leander

Cedar Park

CTJ

Woodlands

Round Rock

LD Bell 

Reagan

Vandergrift

Flower Mound

Vista Ridge 

Westlake

Hendrickson 

Dripping Springs

Westwood

 

 

I apologize in advanced if I forgot a band, and anything could happen really! Competition seems to be getting harder and harder every year!

Aledo and Anderson had very strong performances at Austin. Anderson getting 11th at Austin. I'm not sure how i feel about Westlake. They got 12th at Austin this year. However they always bloom really late in the season. Keller ISD will be big contenders too. Churchill is also a strong contender, however I think they usually plateau early in the season. Westwood's show was unique, but they got 13th at Austin. Anything could change though!

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I'm not going to try placements because that's insane but I will say SOME of the bands that I believe are top contenders for this competition (probably going to forget a few because there are SO MANY!) 

 

Marcus

Bowie

Hebron

Leander

Cedar Park

CTJ

Woodlands

Round Rock

LD Bell 

Reagan

Vandergrift

Flower Mound

Vista Ridge 

Westlake

Hendrickson 

Dripping Springs

Westwood

 

 

I apologize in advanced if I forgot a band, and anything could happen really! Competition seems to be getting harder and harder every year!

 

The results from BOA Austin this year once again prove that the field of Texas marching band is constantly changing.

 

A couple of pointers:

 

1. L.D. Bell and Westwood are actually attending the Atlanta super regional this year, which falls on the same weekend as BOA San Antonio.

2. Here's some other bands that have the potential to make finals:

- Coppell

- Owasso (from Oklahoma)

3. And just a few bands that are more towards the lower end of bubble at the moment:

- Cedar Ridge

- Friendswood

4. And a picky side note: It's Vandegrift, not Vandergrift.

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Hendrickson is off to a great start. Really excited to see their show, sounds like it could potentially be a finalist. They were the first one out in 15th last year and sound like they could be improved this year.

 

Flower Mound sounds awesome, scores from Birdville are promising for them.

Does anyone have a video of Hendrickson?

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If you search BOA Austin Finals 2015 Hendrickson High School there should be a video of them from yesterday

 

It's there.   Woooooooow.  What a great show, beautiful.  Ballad is GORGEOUS.  Guard costuming and their work is spectacular, that crimson is just awesome.  Percussion is pretty hot as well.  Music Ensemble is pretty punchy and intense, mean that in a very good way.  Gonna assume there is a little more at the end.  Definitely a contender for finals at SA.  Have really grown to love their programs over recent years since Dr. Atomic.  

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This is impossible.  This is my current list of bands I'm considering for finals:

 

Cedar Park
Cedar Ridge
Claudia Taylor Johnson
Coppell

Dripping Springs
Flower Mound
Hebron
Hendrickson
James Bowie
Keller
Leander
Marcus
Owasso
Ronald Reagan
Round Rock
The Woodlands
Vandegrift
Vista Ridge
Wakeland
Westlake

 

So that's 20.  And that's leaving of bands like Aledo, Friendswood, Keller Central, College Park, ect.  This is gonna be a nail biter.  There's gonna be a name or two not in the night show that we're not used to seeing out IMO.  

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I'm interested to see what everyone thinks about the competition this year and how it will all add up at SA after a few crazy regionals.

With BOA Austin finishing like this:
(Round Rock 1st if not for a penalty)
1. 80.15 Leander- no captions
2. 80.10 Cedar park- Music
3. 79.75 Round rock- visual
Bowie of all people making 4th after such a strong year and winning GE but still not enough to crack the top 3 although very close.

BOA Houston playing out with
1. 84.85 Regan- GE, visual
2. 84.30 CTJ- Visual, music
3. 80.50 Cedar Ridge- no captions
Plus the woodlands coming third in 4A without winning a single caption (no finals performance sadly)

I'm interested to see how the scores line up between the two considering how low the BOA Austin scores were compared to other years and other competitions. Especially consider Cedar Ridge went from a 74.00 to an 80.50 in just a week!

This year might be a scramble for Gold like we've never seen for sure!

Edited by takigan
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As far as the scores go they can probably be explained by a couple things. As far as Austin is concerned some of the scores, especially the top two were pretty inflated for a regional in September last year. When this happens BOA will usually give there judges a lower "score cap" per say for the next year so that the BOA circuit as a whole looks like a more linear progression. This same thing happened in 2013 to BOA San Antonio so that we didn't see grand nats winning scores two weeks before grand nats. Now as far as Conroe, some of the scores do seem to be inflated, at least in my opinion. The average any band should be improving week to week (with the same criteria such as BOA to BOA) should be around 2-2.5 points 3 is not un heard of but 6.5 points in one week?? that's inflation right there. This is why this year is so hard to predict. Bands that don't typically win are winning and scores are close in some areas and all over the place in others. What a fun, awesome mess.

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Attempted Predictions Unsure who will take it this year. After Flomo Win way to difficult to predict.

 

Locks (Placement Unknown)

Marcus

The Woodlands

Flower Mound

Hebron

Ronald Reagan

CTJ

Leander

Cedar Park

Round Rock

James Bowie

Owasso

 

Unsafe Zone (Fight For Finals Spot)

Vandegrift

Hendrickson

Cedar Ridge

LD Bell

Wakeland

Keller

Vista Ridge

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I don't think Owasso is a lock for finals. I also don't think FloMo's win at Arlington ensures their win here. (They won by a tenth of a point, after all.) Looking through the list, I've noticed 12 bands that I'd be very surprised to see out of finals. Those groups are: Cedar Park, Claudia Taylor Johnson, Flower Mound, Hebron, James Bowie, Leander, Marcus, Ronald Reagan, Round Rock, The Woodlands, Vandegrift, and Wakeland. So, there go twelve spots. That's a lot of spots! Mind you, I've only seen 9 of those shows, and not in their entirety, so I'm basing this mostly on those groups' very strong early results. As for the remaining two spots, I predict that they'll come down to Cedar Ridge, Coppell, Hendrickson, Keller, and Owasso. That's really the best I can do at this point as far as predicting the finalists. Actually, I'm willing to bet that that's just about the best anybody can do at this point, since I doubt anybody on these forums has seen all of those shows.

 

As for the placements, I can think of a few trends. Most of the SA champions in the past (two-thirds of them) have won an earlier regional. Notable exceptions include Westfield in 2003, Ronald Reagan in 2004, Marcus in 2010, and LD Bell in 2011. So, this favors Flower Mound, Leander (Round Rock?), and Ronald Reagan for the SA championship this year. I also tend to think that the groups going to Nationals will shape up quite a bit towards the end of their seasons, since they often bite off more on those seasons than the other bands do. That hasn't always been the case, but it makes me want to predict, for instance, Keller for a finals spot. Along a similar vein, perennial late-bloomer The Woodlands has never placed out of the top 3 at SA on a Nationals year. But honestly, this is all pretty meaningless. If there were ever a year for trends to be broken, it would be this one.

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Oh, and for the record, the three I haven't seen are Claudia Taylor Johnson, James Bowie, and The Woodlands. So, if or when you stumble across something from those groups, you know whom to share it with!

There's a video of Bowie at one of their football games on Youtube, but it's taken from in front of the pit and seems to mainly pick up the sounds at the front of the field. However it still gives you a good feel of their opener, which is very impressive.

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I actually don't think Bowie will get in top 5.

 

Top 5 (random)-

Flower Mound

Marcus

CTJ

Reagan

Round Rock

If you're making that judgement based on their BOA Austin performance I would definitely rethink that one of those groups being in top 5. Bowie has really rebounded and at the TMC they really put up a good showing against Reagan who seems to be a pretty good threat for the top spot of BOA SA. It's soooooo hard to pick a top 5 for me though. Top 8 for me would be-

Hebron

Flower Mound

Claudia Taylor Johnson

Ronald Reagan

James Bowie

Marcus

Round Rock

Cedar Park

 

And even with picking eight groups I still feel like I'm missing some very good groups that could be in the mix as well. So crazy!

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I would be extremely shocked if Leander did not end up in the top half of finals. Remember, their show also isn't done and what they have still has tons of room to grow. Judges, especially for GE (Visual, primarily), will probably respond quite well to the last half of their show and that counts for *a lot* in BOA.

 

I'm not willing to say how high they, or anyone for that matter, will go in the top 7, but they should be in the mix.

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