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2014 BOA San Antonio Super-Regional Predictions


Jbl3770

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I agree about Bowie. Someone earlier said that they were one of the most consistent bands in the state. Year after year they have been right there. I figured this year would be no different...they would have a great show but probably fall short to Hebron or Marcus. And then I saw their show. I have seen the BOA Austin regional and most recently UIL. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is their year. Long overdue.

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Going through the more recent videos, I actually think Leander could win the San Antonio Super Regional. They are unbelievable in that UIL video. What a wonderful show. I love how they use one of the progressions in Rocky Point Holiday to segue into Over the Rainbow at the end. It is so unexpected. Brilliant, brilliant stuff, and a really rousing closer to what was already a great show. Also, based on these videos, I'd be very surprised if Hebron or Marcus take the visual caption. (I guess that means I should replace Marcus as a nominee for the visual caption with Leander or a different group.) Then again, I'm going almost entirely on ensemble performance and not individual performance. Plus, they've got time to clean. It's not like it's the most desirable caption anyway. You just don't want it to cost you a win, which I know has happened to Marcus in the past (2006).

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For anyone that has seen Bowie more recently, have they added any props to their visual package since BOA Austin? There's a sparseness to the way the drill is written that suggests that there might be props that weren't made in time for the regional.

They have added new tree limbs to the uniform to fit the theme (If a Tree Falls). They also added roots to the tree stump that the oboe player falls off of in the ballad. Other than those changes I don't think they're adding anything else.

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I do agree that Leander probably has one of the if not the strongest visual shows so far. They also sound very good. But honestly their show doesn't really come close to difficulty when it comes to tempo and miscue ship as marcus or hebron. I mean their show still may be hard, but marcus and hebron always blow out everyone in the difficulty level. Boa also has some sort of multiplier for difficulty of show. That will really help those lewisville schools (hebron and marcus). Also, the one reason I still have hebron on top is that their show has a fantastic general effect. Everything flows. It's an amazing show, that still tells a story extremely well. That's what I love. Marcus doesn't have as great of a GE but they still have very cool music. That's why I have them winning state.

 

Has anyone seen either hebron or Marcus' UIL Region performances?

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I do agree that Leander probably has one of the if not the strongest visual shows so far. They also sound very good. But honestly their show doesn't really come close to difficulty when it comes to tempo and miscue ship as marcus or hebron. I mean their show still may be hard, but marcus and hebron always blow out everyone in the difficulty level. Boa also has some sort of multiplier for difficulty of show. That will really help those lewisville schools (hebron and marcus). Also, the one reason I still have hebron on top is that their show has a fantastic general effect. Everything flows. It's an amazing show, that still tells a story extremely well. That's what I love. Marcus doesn't have as great of a GE but they still have very cool music. That's why I have them winning state.

 

Has anyone seen either hebron or Marcus' UIL Region performances?

Interesting view point. Personally I never found Marcus or Hebron to have extremely hard shows. The way these two bands got it done was through making their shows with as little flaw as possible. Every year these guys are very clean and that is why they are always in the running for the gold at State. Tempo wise I will disagree with you in that I actually think that the schools in Dallas play slightly slower tempos to sound really good while schools such as Claudia Taylor, Leander and the Woodlands push tempos to gain GE points for their lack in music clarity at times. Lastly, I do agree that herbon has a well designed show but so does everyone in the top for the most part. It will come down to who can execute that Saturday night.

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Last year it seemed at least somewhat clear going into San Antonio that Hebron and The Woodlands were the top 2, and even then the top 14 switched COMPLETELY in order between prelims in finals. This year I think the water is a bit muddier. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if CTJ came in 1st in prelims and Leander in 5th, while in finals Leander comes in 1st and CTJ in 5th. I'm betting the score gap at the top will be razor thin (think 2001 GN finals thin - 1 point separating the top 5 bands).

 

On a side note, I'm going to also predict that Leander places first in visual GE. 

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Honestly, last year, I didn't think Hebron would win going into it. I predicted a Woodlands win the night before the competition (pretty much the whole season, actually). It wasn't until the competition itself that I thought Hebron might have a shot, because I was way more impressed by the show than I was at Conroe, where I saw it live. That, and also the prelims results were uber bizarre, which led me to think I wouldn't see eye to eye with the judges. I ended up being right in the end, though just barely. That's also why I'm more cautious this year. Things can surprise you.

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Honestly, last year, I didn't think Hebron would win going into it. I predicted a Woodlands win the night before the competition (pretty much the whole season, actually). It wasn't until the competition itself that I thought Hebron might have a shot, because I was way more impressed by the show than I was at Conroe, where I saw it live. That, and also the prelims results were uber bizarre, which led me to think I wouldn't see eye to eye with the judges. I ended up being right in the end, though just barely. That's also why I'm more cautious this year. Things can surprise you.

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Rubisco, really like your analysis. You send very knowledgeable. I do believe that if TWHS cleans things up before SA, they will take it again this year. Really surprised CTJ took them in finals and disappointed to hear some of the nasty comments from the parents in the stands about knocking off the reigning BOA champs. Classless.

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Thank you.

 

I'm not sure I would be so harsh about the whole "beating the reigning champion" response. I can't really blame them. I'd be thrilled, too. It was a big upset. Besides, it seems like the two programs have a very good relationship, considering TWHS invited CTJ to their band hall and whatnot. I wouldn't read into it too much.

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I'll update my thoughts and predictions on who I think the top 6 will be one last time... (My predictions for the other 8 finalists have just about stayed the same).

I'm going to say Hebron wins it. Hebron always steps it up a bit at San Antonio, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a visually improved Hebron with a complete show win the whole thing. I think they've got Music in the bag, and I also think they'll be first in visual GE (they very well might win overall GE, but it will be close). However, it's the Visual Performance caption that I think will make or break them, so we'll see.

I'm going to say The Woodlands will be a CLOSE second unless Hebron doesn't improve enough visually to hold on, in which case they'll win. They step it up more than any other band does at San Antonio, and they're going to be firing on all cylinders. I say they will win Visual.

I think this is CTJ's year for a medal so I'm going to have them at third, though Bowie may medal again as well. I'm personally not predicting either of them to win a caption, but it's a possibility for sure obviously.

I know this is going to sound a little strange, but I'll say Leander takes 5th, taking first in music GE (I think they have the best written show musically this year) and winning the overall GE caption. I could be totally wrong about this because there's really no way to know this from videos in the stands, but the reason I have them in fifth is because I could see them struggling to keep up with Hebron, Woodlands, CTJ, Bowie, and Marcus from an individual performance standpoint. Like I said, I'm making a rather uneducated (and probably stupid) guess with this one, but I could see it happening. Regardless of how they place though, I think Leander takes the cake for my favorite show of the year.
 

I'll put Marcus at 6th, but I could easily see them place higher with their music and visual performance scores (both individual and ensemble).

 

Can't wait for next weekend, it's so close to being that time once again! 

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